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Prediction for CME (2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-04T04:13Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33751/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: This CME is faintly visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the south in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be two eruptions in close proximity to each other in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk. A dimming region possibly associated with a faint filament eruption is visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2024-10-04T02:00Z in the SW near ARs 13842, 13839, and 13844 followed by moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2024-10-04T03:00Z in the SW below ARs 13844, 13843, and 13836. The moving/opening field lines are largely visible heading to the west while the dimming appears to have some southern directionality. A third separate eruption from AR 13842 (an M4.0 flare) is likely associated with an overlapping CME feature. Both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs have data gaps during this event. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-04T10:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 585
Longitude (deg): 13W
Latitude (deg): 20S
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes: Glancing impact. Low confidence in fit due to filament eruptions from SW disc at similar times.
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 53.20 hour(s)
Difference: 4.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-10-05T17:00Z

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